从全球金融危机看我国银行业金融创新的进一步发展问题

金融创新是国际银行业发展的持续动力,随着我国银行业改革开放的深化,我国商业银行对金融创新的重视和参与程度也越来越高。但是此次全球金融危机却反映出国际银行业在创新过程中的一些严重问题,为我国银行业金融创新提供了一些启示。本文对国际银行业近年来的金融创新进行了反思,总结了我国银行业金融创新的现状,并对我国银行业金融创新的进一步发展提出了建议。     

广西北部湾经济区银行业发展策略研究

<广西北部湾经济区发展规划>上升为国家发展战略,对广西北部湾经济区而言是千年一遇的重大历史机遇,在良好的经济环境下,广西北部湾经济区金融市场将保持健康快速发展,也为广西北部湾经济区银行业发展提供了前所未有的良好发展机会和广阔的发展空间.本文在全而分析广西北部湾经济区发展概况及发展前景的基础上,结合五力模型、深入分析了广西北部湾经济区银行业发展情况,提出广西北部湾经济区银行业发展的应对策略.     

EVA与银行业的价值创造

中国的银行业,近年来由于体制、不良资产等各方面的原因,造成了效率低下,并且从有关的EVA统计数据看出,中国的银行业不仅没有在创造价值甚至在毁灭价值。面对着WTO五年保护期的即将届满,以及外资银行的纷纷踏入,中国的银行业应该怎样来创造自身价值呢?本文从经济增加值(EVA)的计算公式出发,从五个环节指出了中国银行业怎样进行价值创造,并通过举例的方式进行形象的说明。     

Anticipating bailouts: The incentive-conflict model and the collapse of the Ohio deposit guarantee fund

The collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund in March 1985 provides a laboratory for examining the financial market's belief in the incentive-conflict model proposed by Kane (1989). Research in this area has yet to examine the stock returns of federally insured institutions during that period in the context of this model. Thus, it has not addressed the question of whether financial market participants recognize the implications of the model; that is, whether they anticipate the bailouts it implies. This paper fills that void.We find that on average, stocks of firms insured by the poorly capitalized FSLIC do reasonably well during the 41-day event window centered on the ODGF's Bank Holiday, while stocks of firms insured by the relatively well-capitalized FDIC do not. More important, differences in abnormal returns of FDIC and FSLIC firms are consistent with a reaffirmation of the incentive-conflict model.     

Money, cycles and capital formation: von Mises the 'Austrian' vs. Robertson the 'Dynamist'

A ‘disequilibrium’ between saving and investmentdecisions determines a maladjustment in production, the disruptionof capital, and a downturn in economic activity, according tothe ‘Austrian’ approach. By contrast, the ‘Dynamists’argue that it may lead to economic growth, as disequilibriummay well be instrumental to capital accumulation. What explainsthese different predictions in otherwise similar models? Thekey is in the interplay between the analytical features andthe ideological options underlying each of these approaches:alternative lines of thought, entirely compatible with theiranalytical models, were abandoned by some of these authors whenthey conflicted with their pre-analytical views. This paperillustrates the argument by exploring the models of two ‘fathers’,von Mises and Robertson.     

Convergence of interest rate pass-through in a wider euro zone?

This study investigates interest rate pass-through convergence for the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union. Based on a unifying empirical pass-through model that allows for thresholds, asymmetric adjustment, and structural changes, we find that the pass-through in many CEECs has become faster over time and is generally more complete than in the euro zone. We find evidence for convergence across CEECs with market concentration, bank health, foreign bank participation and monetary policy regime as conditioning factors. No convergence of the CEEC pass-through is found vis-à-vis the heterogeneous euro zone.     

税收、银行与企业融资方式

在现代金融中介理论的基础上,考察税收对融资方式选择的影响。研究结果表明,在完全竞争条件下,当银行为客户提供的交易服务成本很低时,以较低的税率对储蓄利息开征利息所得税不会影响储户(或投资者)在储蓄和直接投资之间的选择；对银行贷款利息收入开征营业税,则会引起税收转嫁,提高贷款利息率,使部分企业选择直接融资方式而不是从银行贷款；银行业所得税也会提高贷款利率,减少贷款需求量。     

Mortgage Refinancing Activity: An Explanation [1990–2001]

Mortgage refinancing activity reached unprecedented high levels during 1990–2001. Using GARCH to control for heteroskedasticity and separating the data into regimes to control for potential structural changes over time, we estimate a model explaining changes in mortgage refinancing activity over the period studied. We find changes in refinancing activity to be negatively related to current as well as past changes in the 30-year mortgage rate with a declining significant lag over time. Similarly, there is a significant lagged dependent variable with a declining lag. Moreover, mortgage refinancing activity is a substitute for other investments during certain regimes. These results offer evidence that home owners cash out the mortgage for other investments. The lags suggest that the process is delayed for a variety of reasons. The declining lag signals a faster response by consumers. The reasons for a faster response include a consumer perception that interest rates have “bottomed out,” the presence of an increase in consumer sophistication, and improvements in technology and market coordination that facilitate and reduce the cost of the refinancing process.     

数字时代的银行业变迁——网点布局与行业结构

数字技术可以帮助市场主体重构组织模式,数字经济时代的金融业也因此迎来变革。本文基于2014年至2019年我国县级行政区数据,研究发现,数字金融的发展显著减缓了我国银行业金融机构实体网点的扩张势头,这种效应主要体现在股份制商业银行和城市商业银行上,并主要影响这两类银行的基层机构。同时,我们发现数字金融的发展加快了农村合作金融机构的转型和网点退出,但对国有“六大行”没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,数字金融的影响效果会随着经济发展程度提高和地区金融可得性增加而增强,但随着在位银行的市场势力提升而下降。本文为理解数字经济时代银行业的变迁提供了一定参考。     

信息问题、银行结构与信贷市场"沉默螺旋"配置效应

从市场交易型贷款和关系型贷款两种贷款技术出发,结合中国寡头银行结构,分析了中国信贷市场的“沉默螺旋”配置效应,并阐明了其动力机制。基于“沉默螺旋”这一全新视角,进一步探讨了货币政策传导机制和银行效率评判问题,并得出相关结论。